Title: Foresight Document: HIV in Canada in 25 Years

Client: Ministerial Advisory Council (MAC) on the Federal Initiative to Address HIV/AIDS in Canada, and the National Aboriginal HIV/AIDS Council

Date of Completion: 2010-2012

In 2010, the Chief Public Health Officer asked the Ministerial Advisory Council (MAC) on the Federal Initiative to Address HIV/AIDS in Canada to provide its thinking on the future of HIV/AIDS. The MAC commissioned San Patten and Associates, Inc. to develop a Foresight Document on the future of HIV/AIDS in Canada over the next 25 years as a basis for long term HIV/AIDS policy advice.

Scenario planning is a technique used for long-term strategic analysis and planning. Scenarios are narratives that describe how the world might look in the future if certain trends were to strengthen or diminish, or if various policy choices are made

San Patten and Associates developed the Foresight Document through an iterative process of evidence-gathering, synthesis and consultation. We conducted literature review, key expert interviews, and national stakeholder consultation meetings. The key experts were those who are domestically or internationally connected to HIV/AIDS issues, health care system analysis, and/or social, political or economic trend analysis. We used the "two axes" method to generate four contrasting scenarios by placing a major factor influencing the future of the issue being investigated on each of two axes, which cross to form four quadrants. We then created evidence-based narratives of the four resulting scenarios. We also created an accompanying toolkit to make the Foresight Document more culturally-appropriate for use by Aboriginal leaders and communities.

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